New to Augur? This guide assumes some familiarity with prediction markets. If you’re completely new, start with Augur basics first.
What is a Fork?
TL;DR — A fork is Augur’s emergency mechanism when the community can’t agree on an outcome. It’s rare, but important to monitor.
A fork happens when a severe disagreement about an outcome escalates through the dispute system. When disputes get expensive and serious enough (bond reaches 275,000 REP), the protocol splits into two branches and REP holders choose which version is correct.
Key Terms
REP — Augur’s governance token. Used to report outcomes and settle disputes.
Dispute — A challenge to an outcome. When someone disagrees with the current outcome, they post a bond to dispute it.
Bond — REP locked up to challenge an outcome. Bonds grow larger with each dispute round.
Fork Threshold — 275,000 REP. When the largest active dispute bond hits this amount, a fork is triggered.
Why Forks Matter
Forks are Augur’s ultimate security mechanism. They ensure that:
- No single entity controls outcomes — Disputes can always be escalated to the community
- REP holders govern — When serious disagreements arise, the community chooses what’s correct
- Bad actors face consequences — Invalid outcomes get rejected by the network
How to Monitor Fork Risk
The fork meter shows how close we are to a fork by tracking the largest dispute bond:
The Formula
(Largest Dispute Bond ÷ 275,000 REP) × 100 = Risk %
The percentage tells you how much of the way to fork we are:
| LEVEL | RANGE | WHAT IT MEANS |
|---|---|---|
| NO RISK | 0% | No disputes. Normal trading. |
| LOW | 0-10% | Early disputes. Fork unlikely. |
| MEDIUM | 10-25% | Serious disputes. Monitor closely. |
| HIGH | 25-75% | Large bonds active. Fork possible. |
| EXTREME | 75-100%+ | Fork imminent or triggered. |
What Happens If a Fork Occurs
When a fork is triggered:
- Fork period starts — 60 days for REP holders to choose
- Markets freeze — No new trades on disputed markets
- You choose a fork — Migrate your REP to the branch you believe is correct
- Community chooses — Most REP wins; that fork becomes the new Augur
- Markets settle — According to the winning fork’s outcomes
Learn More
Ready to dive deeper? Here’s what you should know:
- How Disputes & Bonds Work — Understand dispute escalation and why bonds matter
- What To Do at Different Risk Levels — Practical actions for each risk level