How Disputes & Bonds Work
A fork is the end of an escalation path, not the first response to disagreement. Augur first gives reporters and REP holders a sequence of reporting and dispute rounds in which a tentative outcome can be challenged.
From report to dispute
After a market’s event ends, a designated reporter has an initial reporting window. If the market receives a report, that outcome becomes tentative. A REP holder can challenge it by staking REP on a different outcome during a dispute round.
The first dispute round can last up to 24 hours. Subsequent dispute rounds can last up to seven days. The exact market state and timing come from the protocol; a dispute is not by itself evidence that a fork is imminent.
The bond formula
For dispute round n, the bond required to dispute in favor of outcome ω is:
B(ω, n) = 2An − 3S(ω, n)
Where An is the total stake across all outcomes at the beginning of the round and S(ω, n) is the stake on the proposed outcome at that point. The formula means the target is not a simple fixed multiple of the previous bond. Bond sizes depend on the market’s stake distribution.
Bonds are crowdsourced: several users can contribute to the same dispute. A dispute succeeds when an outcome other than the tentative outcome accumulates enough stake to fill its bond.
What happens after a successful dispute?
The filled bond’s size, measured against all theoretical REP, determines the next state:
| Filled dispute bond | Protocol result |
|---|---|
| Less than 0.02% of theoretical REP | The new tentative outcome enters another dispute round immediately. |
| At least 0.02% but less than 2.5% | The new tentative outcome enters a waiting-for-window phase before another dispute round. |
| At least 2.5% | The market enters the fork state. |
The 2.5% threshold is a proportion of theoretical REP, not a promise that every deployment uses the genesis-universe number. In the genesis universe, the maintained reference calculates 2.5% of 11,000,000 REP as 275,000 REP.
Outcomes for participants
During a dispute round, stake is held in escrow. Unsuccessful dispute stake is returned when the round ends. When a market finalizes without a fork, stake on an incorrect outcome is forfeited: the protocol burns 20% and redistributes the remainder to REP staked on the final outcome. The bond design targets a 40% return for successful disputers.
These are protocol incentive rules, not financial advice or a forecast of any individual result.
How to read fork progress
The site’s monitor uses the funded dispute round and the observed bond trajectory:
(Current funded dispute round ÷ Estimated total rounds) × 100 = Round progress
- Current funded dispute round is the highest non-zero dispute participant observed for the market.
- Estimated total rounds is projected from recent bond growth until the configured fork threshold would be reached.
- Round progress is a measurement of escalation, not a probability of a fork and not a claim about the correct outcome.
If there are too few rounds or the trajectory cannot support a defensible projection, the monitor preserves an unknown value rather than inventing precision.
Why this leads to migration mechanics
If a successfully filled bond reaches the fork threshold, Augur creates child universes and REP holders can make a one-way choice among them. That process is separate from ordinary dispute participation.
Continue with How Fork Migration Works →. For future-oriented preparation rather than live instructions, read What To Do Around Fork Risk →.
Protocol basis
The thresholds, bond formula, dispute windows, and incentive descriptions follow the Augur v2 whitepaper preserved by this project and its maintained protocol glossary. The fork-state and migration behavior are implemented in the pinned Universe.sol and ReputationToken.sol.