Augur Turbo Now Has Over/Under and Spread Markets 🏀⚾

5 months ago

11 min read

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This Week

Augur Turbo Now Has Over/Under and Spread Markets

Brooklyn Nets Remain Favorites, Utah Jazz Rising the Ranks

Last 11 NBA Champions Did Not Make the Second Round

No Judges and No Official Winner, Paul Lasts All Eight Rounds

Cryptocurrency is Down

Augur Turbo Now Has Over/Under and Spread Markets

A big thanks to all of you for sending your feedback. The team spent the past week prioritizing and releasing fixes. If you haven't had the chance to be heard yet, you can do so here. We will parse it to improve Turbo over the coming weeks.

Augur Turbo enables fast-resolving, low-fee, daily markets for NBA and MLB. Markets for MMA and Crypto are being added in the next few weeks.

This week, we:

Enabled Over/Under Markets
Enabled Spread Markets
Disallowed trading of USDC into a market after it has finalized
Allowed LPs to withdraw USDC from finalized market instead of shares. UI will re-enable this support in the next version
Users can clear transactions which from the UI which would never finalize.

Markets are open for trading five days in advance of the event giving LPs time to enter the positions they see fit, which earn 1.50% of open interest as fees. Bettors are free to trade in and out of markets as many times as they want. Markets are resolved automatically between 2-4 hours after the event ends. At that point, bettors are welcome to claim their winnings. View Turbo docs.

Brooklyn Nets Remain NBA Favorites, but Utah Jazz Rising the Ranks

Odds provided by BetMGM / Odds table via Vegas Insider [Updated Sunday, June 6, 7:00 am ET]

We enter the second round of the 2021 NBA playoffs, and there has already been some turnover with the NBA futures betting odds. LeBron James and injured Anthony Davis were unable to elevate the No. 7 Los Angeles Lakers past the No. 2 Phoenix Suns. With the loss to the Suns, James has suffered the only first-round loss of his NBA career. According to DraftKings, the Lakers (+400 to win the championship) received the most bets and the second-highest handle prior to the playoffs.

Meanwhile, the No. 2 Brooklyn Nets (+250 entering the playoffs), who are hoping James Harden will return soon from his hamstring injury, had the highest handle heading into the playoffs. As far as bettors who were looking for value bets, they took advantage of the No. 3 Denver Nuggets at +3000 (fourth-highest handle) and the Suns at +1800 (seventh-highest handle) before the postseason. The Suns have vaulted to +850, and the Nuggets still seem underrated at seventh in NBA futures at +1600.

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The Playoff Bracket via NBA.com

[Prior to the games played on Monday, June 7]

The Last 11 NBA Champion Franchises Did Not Make the Second Round of the 2021 Playoffs

Prior to Sunday’s Game 7 between the Los Angeles Clippers and Dallas Mavericks, the six most recent NBA franchises to win a championship were already out of the 2021 NBA playoffs, with some not even making the postseason: (1) the Los Angeles Lakers, (2) Toronto Raptors, (3) Golden State Warriors, (4) Cleveland Cavaliers, (5) San Antonio Spurs, and (6) Miami Heat. With the Mavericks falling to the Clippers, that added five more franchises to the list: the (7) Mavericks, (8) Boston Celtics, (9) Detroit Pistons, (10) Chicago Bulls, and (11) Houston Rockets. This is unbelievable, as these 11 franchises have combined for the last 37 Larry O’Brien Championship Trophies. The most recent champion left is the Philadelphia 76ers (1983).

The NBA playoffs are full of teams that have never won an NBA title, as five of the eight have never raised the trophy:

Phoenix Suns (+300 to win their conference): inaugural NBA season 1968-69
Los Angeles Clippers (+280): inaugural NBA season 1970-71 as Buffalo Braves
Utah Jazz (+125): inaugural NBA season 1974-75 as New Orleans Jazz
Brooklyn Nets (-135): inaugural NBA season 1976-77 as New York Nets
Denver Nuggets (+750): inaugural NBA season 1976-77

Not only are we looking at a very fresh crop of teams in the NBA playoffs, but we also feel like we are entering unprecedented times. Although the 2020 postseason was played in a bubble, the teams that made the Eastern Conference Finals and Western Conference Finals were well deserved. Of those four teams, three of them - the Heat, Celtics, and Lakers - are gone from the postseason and won a combined three games in the 2021 playoffs after winning 40 postseason contests last year. The Nuggets, who won two game sevens in 2020, had a total of nine wins last postseason and have made the second round in each of the last three years. Now, let us take a look at the other series in the Western Conference.

Western Conference Semifinals: Can the Clippers Make it to Their First Western Conference Finals?

(1) Utah Jazz vs. (4) Los Angeles Clippers

Game 1 tips off at 10:00 pm ET on Tuesday, June 8 at Vivint Home Smart Arena

Game 1 Spread: opened at Jazz -4.5

Game 1 Moneyline: opened at Jazz -200

Game 1 Over / Under: opened at 211

Remaining Schedule for the Series:

Game 2: Thursday, June 10, 10:00 pm ET at Vivint Home Smart Arena in Utah

Game 3: Saturday, June 12, 8:30 pm ET at Staples Center in Los Angeles

Game 4: Monday, June 14, time TBD at Staples Center in Los Angeles

Game 5 (if necessary): Wednesday, June 16, time TBD at Vivint Home Smart Arena in Utah

Game 6 (if necessary): Friday, June 18, time TBD at Staples Center in Los Angeles

Game 7 (if necessary): Sunday, June 20, time TBD at Vivint Home Smart Arena in Utah

FiveThirtyEight prediction: Clippers win the series (54%)

Series Preview: During the regular season, the Jazz won two of the three meetings against the Clippers. Of those three contests, Kawhi Leonard and Paul George played in two of them, and the semifinalists split those two games. The coaching matchup is one to watch, as Tyronn Lue had great success as a head coach with the Cavaliers. Meanwhile, Quin Snyder has yet to get out of the second round during his head coaching career. Neither the Jazz nor the Clippers have a recent history of success, so the odds may waver after we see the Game 1 performance. To begin the series, Vegas is giving the Jazz the edge.

Eastern Conference Semifinals: Can the Hawks Actually Upset the 76ers?

(1) Philadelphia 76ers vs. (5) Atlanta Hawks

Game 2 tips off at 7:30 pm ET on Tuesday, June 8 at Wells Fargo Center in Philadelphia

Game 2 Spread: opened at 76ers -4.5

Game 2 Moneyline: opened at 76ers -180

Game 2 Over / Under: opened at 222.5

Remaining Schedule for the Series:
Game 3. Friday, June 11, 7:30 pm ET at State Farm Arena in Atlanta

Game 4. Monday, June 14, time TBD at State Farm Arena in Atlanta

Game 5 (if necessary). Wednesday, June 16, time TBD at Wells Fargo

Center in Philadelphia

Game 6 (if necessary). Friday, June 18, time TBD at State Farm Arena in Atlanta

Game 7 (if necessary). Sunday, June 20, time TBD at Wells Fargo Center in Philadelphia

FiveThirtyEight prediction: Hawks win the series (57%)

Series Update: Prior to the series beginning, most of the chatter was about Joel Embiid’s injury status. Embiid ended up playing 38 minutes through his knee issue, but his 39 points were not enough, as Trae Young (35 points and 10 assists), Bogdan Bogdanović (21 points), and John Collins (21 points) led the Hawks to the Game 1 upset. Moving forward, Vegas is not getting worried about the 76ers yet, as they opened as 4.5-point favorites for Game 2. However, most 76ers fans are one more impressive Young performance away from feeling like they will be bounced early from the playoffs yet again.

NBA Predictions via FiveThirtyEight prior to the final two games on Monday, June 7

No Judges and No Official Winner, But Logan Paul Lasts All Eight Rounds Against Overwhelming Favorite Floyd Mayweather

All sights were on Hard Rock Stadium for Floyd “Money” Mayweather Jr. and Logan “The Maverick” Paul and their eight-round fight, which was part of a four-fight card that day. The fight was postponed from February 20 to June 6 after they agreed to the fight on December 6, 2020. Retired NFL wide receiver Chad Johnson was dropped by Brian Maxwell earlier in the evening.

The 44-year-old Floyd, who finished his professional boxing career with an impressive 50-0 record, was the heavy favorite against the 26-year-old Logan Paul, who made his professional boxing debut in 2019 at Staples Center against fellow YouTuber KSI. Paul lost his only professional fight to date by split decision. For those reasons, Floyd was expected to win the exhibition fight:

Odds table via Odds Shark [from Saturday, June 5]

There were no judges for the fight and there was no official winner, but knockouts were allowed. The statistics favored Mayweather, but Paul gained some credibility with how he performed. There were plenty of prop bets offered by BetOnline, including the first to bleed, knockdowns, will the fight go the scheduled distance, and will they touch gloves before the opening bell? On Saturday, touching gloves was +135 while not touching gloves was -175 on BetOnline; not touching gloves was actually +165 on Bovada. They did not touch gloves in the first round. Unfortunately, there was not a knockout in the fight, so many bets were refunded.

Match stats via Showtime

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Total crypto market capitalization chart from Tradingview.com.

Cryptocurrency is Down

Cryptocurrency market capitalization suffered a steep drop again, touching 1.37T, which is still up from the lows of 1.19T on May 23rd but leaves one wanting given the highs of 2.58T on May 12th. It's safe to conclude that cryptocurrency as a whole is now in sideways formation. Though the higher lows may indicate an upcoming breakout, total cryptocurrency market capitalization is barely above the 200EMA with 7 candles wicks having broken the well-respected trendline over the last 21 days.

Markets are cyclic, and after the bull run we've seen over the last year, this is to be expected. The traders amongst us will be selling the rallies. The hodlers will be re-affirming their conviction. The institutions appear to be reconsidering BTC given the news coming out of China and Crypto Twitter. The world markets are expecting inflationary pressure to build up in reaction to US Federal Reserve's announcement about the end of quantitative easing and strategic selling of ETFs. Fiat negative signals have generally been interpreted as bullish by the crypo community but it's not so black and white since it was institutional capital that was driving the cryptocurrency upswing. Institutions have traditionally preferred gold in such times. It remains to be seen if the narrative of "digital gold" has stuck with them as it has with MicroStrategy.

ETH and BTC are on trend with rest of the cryptocurrency market but it's the ETH-BTC pairing that is attention-worthy. BTC has broken the 200EMA while Ethereum seems to be settling just below the 50EMA. The ETH-BTC pairing is just 9% below it's ATH and above the 9EMA. If the tweets coming out of BTC Miami are any indication, capital allocation is already shifting from BTC to ETH.

This begs the question: will ETH flip BTC in the next five years?

ETH-BTC chart from Tradingview.com.

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