One year ago, the Lituus Foundation set out to revive Augur — a first-principles project — at an interesting time for the space.
Originally built on Ethereum in 2016 as a fully decentralized prediction market and oracle, Augur delivered an end-to-end platform that did not rely on trusting any centralized entity for trading nor resolution. An open-source foundation for markets on anything, where no permission is needed to create, trade, and participate in resolving them.
Twelve months in, here’s how we’re reintroducing and modernizing the platform at a pivotal time, when demand for prediction markets is high and trust in resolution is low.
Year One Summary
In April 2025, we laid out a plan:
- Support REP availability & liquidity
- Restart core research and development
- Reintroduce Augur to the ecosystem
We’ve made meaningful progress across these tracks. Augur is no longer dormant. Two development tracks are live, the whitepaper is out, a fork is imminent, and REP is liquid.
Research & Development
Summary
This year was about getting the design right. We now have two active development streams:
- B2C: A new prediction market system led by Dark Florists
- B2B: Augur Lituus, a generalized oracle designed as infrastructure for other protocols
This Year
- Continued parallel open-source development across both tracks
- Released a 20-page academic whitepaper formalizing Augur Lituus
- Reached final stages of contract review with an established team to build Augur Lituus
Next Year
- Begin full development of Augur Lituus
- Maintain focus on a unified REP infrastructure along both tracks
- Work toward formal publication of the whitepaper
We are building both the application and the infrastructure layer. Markets and resolution. More information coming soon.
️ Micah’s Fork
Summary
On April 8th, Augur enters its first live algorithmic fork. This is a full exercise of the system’s final security mechanism.
At a high level:
- Disputes escalate through an onchain staking game
- If disagreement persists, the system splits into parallel universes
- All REP holders must migrate to the universe they believe reflects reality
Why This Fork Matters
- It tests the mechanism & assumptions under real conditions
- It demonstrates an oracle security model where attackers are forced to lose money inside the protocol
- It requires participation from every REP holder and custodian
Timeline
The process will unfold in two phases:
- Dispute game: April 9th - June 6th
- Migration window: June 7th - August 5th
Important Note: If you hold REP, you will need to migrate or be stuck with a worthless token. REP is not a passive asset. The security of the protocol depends on participation.
More information on required action is coming shortly.
Liquidity & Token Support
Summary
REP must be accessible when it matters and liquid at critical moments. To this end, we have developed internal market making tooling to reduce our dependency on 3rd parties.
This Year
- Maintained and expanded onchain & CEX liquidity
- Continued exchange coordination
- Built internal market making capabilities
Next Year
- Continue internal MM activities to support REP
- Explore listings outreach post-fork
Key Point: REP underpins the security of Augur. Everything else is downstream.
Presence & Ecosystem Growth
Summary
We reintroduced Augur to the ecosystem, built partnerships and expanded awareness.
This Year
- Attended 8 conferences to build relationships and partnerships
- Participated in panels, X Spaces, and interviews
- Re-established Augur’s presence among builders
Next
- Expand interviews and technical discussions
- Host a public Q&A on X Spaces
- Continue targeted ecosystem engagement
- Review and realign social media strategy
As Augur re-enters the conversation, attention shifts back to the problem it was built to solve.
Truth Under Pressure
As more capital flows into prediction markets, resolution becomes the point of failure. If outcomes depend on token voters, multisigs, advisory layers, or last-minute intervention, then truth becomes something that can be influenced. Even with good intentions, incentives are not neutral, and any capacity to influence truth can corrupt.
Augur takes a different approach.
Participants commit capital. Dishonest positions lose it, and honest positions profit. Truth is enforced by economic incentives, not centralized actors.
That is the core idea behind Augur.
What Comes Next
Year one was about rebuilding the foundation.
Year two is about execution.
The fork begins April 8th.
Join Us
— The Lituus Foundation